Why Michigan's electric-to-gas price ratio is the worst for heat pumps
At $0.21/kWh electricity and $1.13/therm natural gas, Michigan's per-BTU price ratio is roughly 3.8 to 1. Even with a heat pump achieving a seasonal average COP of 2.5, the effective delivered heat cost comparison is: heat pump delivers 1 million BTU for roughly $24.60, while a 90% AFUE gas furnace delivers the same million BTU for roughly $12.50. Gas is effectively half the cost. This ratio is worse than Wisconsin's, worse than Minnesota's, and worse than Illinois's — Michigan is the most challenging gas state for heat pump operating economics in the Midwest. The high electric rates stem from Michigan's generation mix (still coal and gas-heavy, with nuclear from Cook and Palisades), transmission constraints from the Lower Peninsula's geography, and the cost of maintaining infrastructure across two peninsulas with low population density in the north.