Why 75% gas share changes the heat pump conversation in New Jersey
New Jersey's gas infrastructure is pervasive — 75% gas penetration means the vast majority of homes are connected to utility gas lines, and the $1.42/therm rate is the cheapest in the Northeast corridor. A typical gas-heated New Jersey home burns 800-1,100 therms per winter spending $1,136-$1,562 on heat. A cold-climate heat pump (HSPF 10+) for the same home uses 7,000-9,200 kWh at $0.23/kWh — roughly $1,610-$2,116 per year. The annual gap of $450-$500 means gas is cheaper to operate than a heat pump. For gas-heated New Jersey homes, a heat pump only makes mathematical sense in three scenarios: (1) the gas furnace and central AC both need replacement (combining both in a single heat pump saves the separate AC cost), (2) you expect gas rates to rise faster than electric rates, or (3) you're pursuing whole-home electrification for non-economic reasons. This is fundamentally different from oil-heavy states like Maine or Vermont where heat pumps deliver $2,000+ in annual fuel savings.